Experienced casino players understand the concept of the return rate in casino games. Simply put, the return rate is the percentage of the money wagered during a casino game that is ultimately returned to the player.

Most people are aware that these return percentages are mathematically calculated and based on an infinite number of bets. This means that the short-term return rate may differ significantly from the long-term theoretical return rate.

However, only a few players truly understand the transition process from short-term to long-term results. Many gamblers, system sellers, and experts also fail to fully grasp this phenomenon.

So, is any casino game ever “due”? Read on to find out.

Why do people think casino games are “due”?

As mentioned earlier, the return rate of casino games can vary significantly from the theoretical return rate in the short term.

Take the example of flipping a coin. A player can bet on either heads or tails, and the correct result pays even money. In a fair coin flip, the probabilities of heads and tails are equal, so over an infinite number of flips, the return rate should be 100%. The player wins on half of the bets and loses on the other half.

Here’s a sample scenario: The player always bets one dollar on heads. If heads comes up, the player wins one dollar; if tails comes up, the player loses one dollar. Here is a sample run:

• Heads – return rate is 100% (bets $1, wins $1, total win $1)
• Heads – return rate is 200% (bets $1, wins $1, total win $2)
• Heads – return rate is 300% (bets $1, wins $1, total win $3)
• Tails – return rate is 200% (bets $1, wins $1, total win $2)
• Heads – return rate is 300% (bets $1, wins $1, total win $3)

Let’s consider a more complex example. Although this isn’t a casino game, it illustrates the point.

Imagine a bag containing four red balls and one white ball. The player bets one dollar. A ball is randomly drawn from the bag. If it’s a red ball and the player bet on red, the player wins one dollar. If it’s a white ball and the player bet on white, the player wins four dollars since a red ball is four times more likely to be drawn than a white ball. The theoretical return rate for this game is also 100%. Here’s a sample run:

• White – return rate is 400% (bets $1, wins $4, total win $4)
• White – return rate is 800% (bets $1, wins $4, total win $8)
• White – return rate is 1200% (bets $1, wins $4, total win $12)
• White – return rate is 1600% (bets $1, wins $4, total win $16)

In both cases, the player’s winnings are far above the mathematical average.

In the first example, it seems that tails are “due”; in the second, red seems “due.” This is the basis of the “due theory” in gambling. But are tails or red really “due”?

Definition of random games

Casino games are classified as random games. This is achieved through randomizing methods, such as shuffling the card deck or randomly releasing a ball onto a spinning roulette wheel in table games. In slot machines or video poker, a computer software routine known as a Random Number Generator (RNG) is used.

According to Merriam-Webster, random is defined as lacking a definite plan, purpose, or pattern. In the context of casino games, random means there is no pattern, and outcomes cannot be predicted.

Definition of “due”

Merriam-Webster provides several definitions for the adverb “due.” The definition “required or expected in the prescribed, normal, or logical course of events” is the most applicable to casino games.

The fallacy of a casino game being “due”

In both examples provided earlier, the return rate is skewed in favor of the player. The problem with believing that something is “due” lies in the fact that by the very definitions of random (no pattern/cannot be predicted) and due (scheduled), nothing can be considered “due” in a casino game.

Almost every betting system endorsed by experts and sold by system sellers is based on the mistaken belief that something is “due.” For example, some people will wait until red has not appeared on a roulette table for 10 or 15 spins before betting on red.

Because the specified event is random, it cannot be predicted. Black (or green) could appear for the next 20 or 25 spins of the wheel.

It works the other way too. In video poker, royal flushes occur once every 40,000 hands on average. But this does not mean that a player must wait 40,000 hands for the next royal flush. They could occur back-to-back … while unlikely, it is possible in a random game.

Summary

The belief that some event is “due” in a casino game is common among gamblers. When slot machine players continuously feed money into the machine only to lose it quickly, it seems logical to feel that a win is imminent.

When someone promotes a betting system based on a certain event happening or not happening, it seems logical that the system should work. Often, these systems do work—for a while. However, eventually, even the most logical-sounding betting system will fail and lead to significant losses simply because the player is betting on a random event.

Believing that something is “due” in a casino game is not inherently wrong. What is wrong is taking action based on this (false) belief that leads you to wager more money chasing this so-called “due” event.

Do not let logical-sounding but ultimately flawed ideas influence your normal, controlled play in the casino.

                                                                                                        -The article comes from MK Sports