Last week, we exploited some overreactions from the NFL's opening week, as value picks like the Colts and Browns bounced back despite being unpopular with the public in pick 'em pools. The four reasonably priced and value favorite picks we recommended yielded three wins, compared to the public only getting an average of 2.56 picks right. As it's still the early season, Week Justin Morneau Jersey 3 continues to provide contrarian NFL pick opportunities as the public reacts to the latest upset or notable performance, especially in prime-time games.
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Week 3 NFL Picks Advice: Tips for Pick 'em Pools
How we identify Week 3 value picks
Good NFL game predictions are only part of the story when it comes to winning a football pool. You also need to consider how you expect your opponents to pick each game. After all, you can only rise in your pool standings if you score points that your opponents mi s. So in order to distance yourself from the competition, you need to do two things:
Always look for unpopular picks that might be worth an educated gambleMake sure to avoid trendy upset picks that aren't worth the risk.
This approach to making picks is a big reason why since 2014, an average of .
Without further ado, let's get to the Week 3 picks.
Note: Win odds and estimated pick popularity data below may change between publication time and kickoff time. If you want the latest numbers, our product updates multiple times per day.
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Big Favorites AtReasonable Prices
The picks below might not be significantly underrated by the public, but compared to other favorites this week, they are a relative bargain in terms of pick popularity. Think twice about picking against them --there are smarter upset pick opportunities on the board.
New England Patriots (vs. Las Vegas)
The Raiders are coming off a big win in their home opener over the Saints in prime time, while the Patriots lost to Seattle by the slimmest of margins (a Cam Newton goal-line Erick Aybar Jersey stuff by the Seattle defense on the very last play of the game) the previous night. Prime-time game results can provide the fuel for a value pick opportunity the next week if the public reacts strongly, andthis game fits the bill.
New England has win odds of 71 percentin this matchup as a six-point favorite. In the four other games in which a team is favored by between six and seven points this week, the public is taking the favorite over 90 percentof the time, but the Patriots only have 76-percentpick popularity.
Put another way, the public is picking a Raiders upset more than twice as often as other similar longshots this week. Trendy upset picks like Las Vegas mean le s reward for still taking on a lot of risk, and that's a situation you want to avoid.
Buffalo Bills (vs. Los Angeles Rams)
The Bills and Rams face off in a showdown of 2-0 teams. With the game in Buffalo, the Bills opened as a two-point favorite and have 60-percentwin odds, according to our projections. The public is picking them at a similar rate, taking the Bills 60 percentof the time.
The Rams have gotten off to an impre Nelson Cruz Jersey sive startand convincingly beat the Eagles on the road as a popular public choice last week. Bills QB Josh Allen, though, has also been playing well through two weeks, leading the Bills to58 points against the Jets and Dolphins.
To be clear, Buffalo isn't a huge favorite, and the Rams pulling off their third upset in a row would not be a shocker. However, compared to other favorites, you're getting a relatively decent reward here for keeping the odds to win in your favor.
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Week 3 features several favorites that the public is picking at a lower rate than their chance to win. These types of teams are as close to no-brainer picks as you can get in NFL pick em contestssince you can take the team that's expected to winyet still "fade the public" (in relative Anibal Sanchez Jersey terms, at least) at the same time.
Baltimore Ravens (vs. Kansas City)
The Monday Night showdown in Week 3 looks like a preview of the AFCChampionship game, and the winner will have the upper hand in playoff tiebreakers. The public understandably loves the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs, who have now won 11 straight games including the postseason.
The Ravens are no slouches themselves, though, following up last year's 14-2 record with a 2-0 start where they outscored the Browns and Texans by 49 combined points. Kansas City struggled to give Patrick Mahomes time in the pocket against the Chargers last week, and he completed le s than 60 percentof his pa ses and averaged fewerthan 6.5 yards per attempt in a comeback Jonathan Schoop Jersey win.
Baltimore gets this game at home, which helps make it a favorite of 3.5 points in the betting marketswith roughly 63-percentwin odds. (So far, there hasn't been any noticeable difference in .) Meanwhile, the public is only picking the Ravens 59 percentof the time, providing a little sweetener for sticking with the favorite here.
New Orleans Saints (vs. Green Bay)
The recency bias bells are ringing for this matchup. The Saints are coming off a road lo s at Las Vegas on Monday Night. The Packers have been a public darling through the first two weeks and now go on the road after blowing out the Lions.
The Saints are still the three-point favorite in this one, though, with right around 60-percentwin odds, yet the public is giving a slight lean to the Packers, with Green Bay drawing 57 percentof early picks. That means you can get the favorite Eddie Rosario Jersey at a slight underdog or to s-up price.
There was plenty of talk of Drew Brees looking his age against the Raiders, but it would be unwise to completely discount a team like New Orleans based on one early game result. The Saints went 6-0 when Brees was out injured last year and still have plenty of weapons.
If you're going to make a gamble on an underdog, you need to make sure that the potential reward if you get it right that is, how much your odds to win your pool will increase is big. Take a bunch of extra risk to make a super trendy upset pick, and the joke is on you.
The pick below is definitely not appropriate for all pools. If you're in a smaller, season-long pool, it's probably not worth the risk. However, it should be seriously considered for single-week contests or if you only care about weekly prizes.
Miami Dolphins (at Jackso